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Production resumes declining , more fast now, from Feb to May perhaps 2006. This is happening while in the confront of costs growing sharply. I think this is likely because of worsening problems in North Ghawar, while that can't be tested outside of a reasonable doubt.
So for this reason, in a mix of almost all oil, the drinking water cannot stream in any way. Conversely, once there is nearly all h2o, the oil can't stream whatsoever (which sets an higher Restrict on the level of oil that will at any time be recovered by a h2o flood).
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Now, how long before the red zone is gone? Let me remind you of the simulation picture all over again, to save on scrolling: